The S&P 500 climbed on Monday as semiconductor stocks rebounded from last week’s sharp selloff and Polymarket traders are betting the benchmark index will build on those gains at Tuesday’s open.

The S&P 500 rose 0.30% to close at 7,405.73 on Monday, recovering some ground after Friday’s tech-driven rout triggered by a hotter-than-expected May jobs report. The June 9 Polymarket contract implied an 89% probability that the index will open higher on Tuesday.

Why That Number Matters

Investor sentiment improved after chip stocks staged a strong rebound from Friday’s sell-off, easing concerns that the artificial intelligence-driven rally was losing momentum.

Markets are also closely monitoring developments in the Middle East after Iran halted military strikes against Israel while warning that hostilities could resume if ...