The most important chart on Wall Street right now isn’t Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) or Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:MU). It’s the yield on the two-year Treasury note.

According to John Roque, technical analyst at 22V Research, the front end of the Treasury curve has become “Public Enemy No. 1” for risk assets after breaking above its March and May highs, setting up what he believes could be a move toward 5%.

Chart: 2-Year Treasury Yields Soared After Bottoming In March

Why Friday’s Chip Selloff Didn’t Come Out Of Nowhere

While last Friday’s sharp correction appeared sudden, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 4.8% while the iShares Semiconductor ETF (NYSE:SOXX) sunk over 10%, Roque indicates the warning signs had been flashing for weeks.

Many of the market’s biggest winners had reached historically extreme levels relative to their long term trends.

By early June, Sandisk Corp. (NASDAQ:SNDK) was trading nearly 250% above its 200 day moving average, Marvell Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:MRVL) more than 220% above, Micron over 200% above, and Dell Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:DELL) roughly 195% above.

Rackspace Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:RXT)  represented perhaps the most extreme example, surging almost ...