The S&P 500 rebounded on Thursday after snapping a nine-day winning streak a day earlier, but Polymarket traders are overwhelmingly betting the benchmark index will open lower on Friday.

The S&P 500 gained 0.41% to close at 7,584.31 on Thursday, recovering part of Wednesday’s decline. The June 5 Polymarket contract implied just a 21% probability that the index will open higher on Friday.

Why That Number Matters

Friday’s jobs report could shape expectations for Federal Reserve policy at a time when investors remain focused on inflation, interest rates and geopolitical risks.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect the U.S. economy to have added 80,000 jobs in May, below the average pace of the previous two months, while the unemployment rate is expected ...