Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE:LLY) shares faced downward pressure on Tuesday after HSBC analysts turned bearish, suggesting that the weight-loss market is overly optimistic regarding revenue potential.

Analyst Rajesh Kumar downgraded the U.S. drugmaker from Hold to Reduce, while cutting the price forecast from $1070 to $850.

According to Bloomberg, the downgrade (the stock’s lowest on Wall Street) comes after a bit of back and forth.

HSBC downgraded Eli Lilly’s stock to a sell-equivalent last April, citing excessive optimism and unattractive risk-reward. Four months later, they upgraded it to hold, noting potential upside if the obesity market maintains price discipline. However, they have now reassessed, stating that the stock is “priced to perfection” and the risk-reward is no longer balanced.

The analysts expressed concern that Wall Street’s consensus for the obesity drug market—projected at over $150 billion by 2032—is too high. HSBC estimates global revenues of $80-$120 billion for the same period.

A primary driver of this skepticism ...