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Mar 4, 2026 4:00 AM

Will S&P 500 Open Up Or Down On March 4? Iran War Mounts Pressure With ADP Private Jobs Report In Focus

The S&P 500 closed lower three of the last four sessions, finishing Tuesday at 6,816.63 to clock its weakest close since late November and below where it started the year. Concerns around a prolonged U.S.-Iran war unsettled investors even as President Donald Trump‘s comments offered some respite.  

The Polygon-based (CRYPTO: POL) Polymarket crowd remains bearish. The March 4 market sits at 77% “Down,” 23% “Up,” with $28,301 in volume placed against whether the S&P will open up or down on Wednesday.

Why That Number Matters

Global benchmark Brent crude gained 5.8% Tuesday to $82.14 per barrel, its highest since July 2024, having surged nearly 20% in two sessions.

For the S&P, that ...