BlackRock Inc. (NYSE:BLK) is doubling down on its core message for 2026: artificial intelligence isn't just a tech trend, it's becoming the macro story that will define growth, inflation and market leadership for years.

In its new global outlook, the world's largest asset manager argues that the U.S. economy is entering a capital-intensive regime driven by massive AI investment, one that keeps growth resilient even as traditional business-cycle signals cool.

The firm estimates that global AI capex could reach $5 trillion to $8 trillion by 2030, with the U.S. leading the buildout.

"We see a shift in the U.S. from a capital-light, software-driven tech regime to a capital-intensive, investment-led AI regime," the asset manager wrote.

That level of capex, the firm says, is powerful enough to keep economic growth running even as hiring slows and traditional cycle gauges fade.

However, companies are also pulling future spending forward while revenues arrive later, which means more leverage, more rate sensitivity and persistent pricing pressures.

“The AI buildout could be faster and greater than all past technological revolutions,” BlackRock added. 

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