Cruise lines have enjoyed smooth sailing in recent years, but a rising tide of ships could soon stir rough waters for investors.

In a note shared Monday, Goldman Sachs analyst Lizzie Dove said cruise sentiment “hasn't been this negative in a while” as plans of aggressive expansions risk backfiring.

Caribbean cruise capacity is set to surge sharply in 2026, and Goldman is sounding the alarm about what this means for pricing, demand, and ultimately, investor returns.

Cruise Lines Are Flooding The Caribbean—Will They Regret the Move?

The problem starts with one key stat: Caribbean market capacity is growing 9% year over year, to nearly 15.9 million passengers in 2026.

That might sound like good news at first. More ships, more passengers, right? Not quite.

This kind of rapid capacity expansion has a history—and not a good one.

In 2014, when the Caribbean saw a similar surge in capacity, pricing crumbled and didn't recover for a full year. Dove and her team point to that moment as a precedent—and say we could be in for a repeat.

"While we think it is far too soon to call for any big slowdown yet, we look to 2014 for ...