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Oct 15, 2025 12:00 PM

Buying Microsoft Stock Ahead Of Earnings? Seasonality Might Be On Your Side

With Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) set to report its fiscal first-quarter earnings in late October, some investors may be wondering if now is the right time to jump in. As it turns out, history says yes.

The three-week stretch between mid-October and early November has quietly been one of the most consistent winning periods for Microsoft stock, and it aligns perfectly with its first-quarter earnings release.

Microsoft Has a Seasonal Edge Before Earnings, Here's What 25 Years of Data Show

According to data from Seasonax, Microsoft has posted gains in 19 of the past 25 years between Oct. 14 and Nov. 7, translating to a 76% win rate.

During that timeframe, the average return was +6.5%, with the median right in line.

Not only has the stock shown strength in this earnings window, it's done so with impressive consistency, even during volatile or weak years for the broader market.

Microsoft's strongest showing occurred between Oct. 16, 2000 and Nov. 7, 2000, with shares jumping 40% fueled by a post-dot-com bounce.

Double-digit gains during this three-week window have occurred in 8 of the past 25 years, nearly one-third of the time, with standout performances in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2007, ...