Goldman Sachs Scraps Recession Call After Trump's Surprise Tariff Pause As Wall Street Marks Strongest Day Since 2008

In a stunning U-turn, Goldman Sachs has officially withdrawn its call for an outright U.S. recession, issued just hours before President Donald Trump stunned markets with a surprise announcement of a 90-day tariff pause for countries that have not retaliated against U.S. trade measures.

The move underscores the immediate and far-reaching implications of Trump's announcement, which caught Wall Street experts off guard.

“We are reverting to our previous non-recession baseline forecast, with GDP growth of 0.5% and a 45% probability of recession." Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius wrote in a late day note.

Goldman now sees 0.5% U.S. GDP growth in 2025 and a 45% probability of recession—down from the full recession baseline forecast it published earlier that same day.

The bank still expects three 25-basis-point Fed “insurance cuts” in June, July and September but sees a less dire macro trajectory, thanks to the tariff pause and signs of trade stabilization.

The revised forecast reflects Trump's differentiated strategy: escalate pressure on China while opening a negotiation path for allies who've held fire.

Trump announced a 10% minimum reciprocal tariff for non-retaliating nations; sector-specific tariffs of up ...

https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/04/44723376/goldman-sachs-scraps-recession-call-after-trumps-surprise-tariff-pause-as-wall-street-mark