Despite inflation, some everyday products actually dropped in price this year

CNN

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From a purely economic standpoint, 2024 wasn't too shabby a year for inflation.

(Although the carton of eggs would like to disagree).

The prices of everyday goods and services were up 2.5% from January through November of this year, Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows. That's down from 3.1% in 2023 and 6.4% in both 2022 and 2021 for that comparable period.

Although prices may not be rising as fast as they have in recent years, and wages are growing faster than inflation, that still doesn't deliver warm and fuzzies to the kitchen table or the bank account. The cumulative effect of the once-in-a-generation inflation event has taken its toll.

But in a time of good tidings and fresh starts, it's worth highlighting some of the price-related "wins" of the past year, what's behind them and what's ahead in the year to come.

Here's a snapshot of some of the major categories that have seen price declines this year, according to Consumer Price Index data though November.

Fuel oil (home heating oil)

2024 price change (through November): Down 16.8%

When it comes to energy costs, silver linings are growing paper-thin. But, in 2024, lower crude costs helped to drive residential heating oil prices significantly lower heading into winter.

A nearly 17% price drop from the year before should be welcome news for many Northeasterners, Alaskans and others who make up the 4% of US residents who use fuel oil to heat their homes. However, as with most aspects related to the cost of living, it's not that straightforward.

First, the sharp drop in prices is relative: They're coming down off hitting a record high in November 2022 (according to US Energy Information Administration data that goes back to 1990). Plus, they're up 27% since before the pandemic, CPI data shows.

Oil delivery trucks parked at Jacobi Oil Service Inc. in Floyds Knobs, Indiana, on October 20, 2021.

Luke Sharrett/Bloomberg/Getty Images

Also, the price ultimately paid by consumers is dependent on other factors, notably weather, use and energy efficiency, said Mark Wolfe, executive director at the National Energy Assistance Directors Association.

As such, heating oil-related expenditures are expected to fall just 2.7% this winter, according to NEADA's latest forecast. Comparatively, those using propane and electricity to heat their homes could see costs rising 4.4% and 14.2% this winter.

2025 outlook: The high heating bills are coming on the heels of soaring summer cooling costs that have driven up levels of utility debt to record levels, Wolfe said.

Home energy costs are becoming greater burdens on US households, and that trajectory isn't expected to change, given the effects of increasingly extreme weather as well as demand (including electrical grid upgrades driven by AI-focused data centers). Plus public energy assistance funding is not growing, he said.

"There's going to be more pushback against prices; except for utilities, you can push back all you want, but you can't do anything about it," Wolfe said.

Gasoline

2024 price change (through November): Down 7.6% (gasoline all types)

Gas prices may be highly volatile and highly integral to aspects of life and business, but they're also highly visible reminders of how prices are trending.

And, in 2024, Americans got a bit of a reprieve at the pump.

Despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East and the dragged-out war between Russia and Ukraine, US oil prices are hovering above $70 a barrel. That's a far cry from the spike above $120 a barrel in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine.

A customer refuels at a gas station in Hercules, California, on November 27, 2024.

David Paul Morris/Bloomberg/Getty Images

Weaker global demand, especially in countries like China, has helped drag down crude prices while supply has been strong. A big reason: The US is pumping out more oil than any other country in world history.

Gas prices have dropped sharply since spiking to record highs in mid-2022. GasBuddy expects Americans will spend $115 billion less on fuel than they did in 2022, however looming tariffs on Canada and Mexico remain a key risk.

Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

Related article

What to expect for gas prices in 2025

Will prices continue to fall?: GasBuddy experts think so. The fuel price tracking firm, which has accurately forecasted gas prices for several years running, told CNN that prices at the pump should continue to drop in 2025.

GasBuddy expects for the national average to dip to $3.22 in 2025, dropping from $3.33 this year, the company told CNN.

Still, gas prices can be as volatile as fuel is flammable, and geopolitical risk remains high, said Lauren Saidel-Baker, an economist at ITR Economics, told CNN recently.

"There are these non-fundamental economic factors that really could be impacting [gas prices] going forward," she said.

Consumer technology

2024 price change (through November): Down 6.7%

Technology has historically been a deflationary product, said Rick Kowalski, senior director of business intelligence at the Consumer Technology Association.

Behind that are several factors, he said, noting Moore's Law, which points to semiconductors and chips becoming more efficient year after year; increasing economies of scale; and the highly competitive nature of the technology industry.

"Even during the pandemic, when inflation was rampant across the economy, most consumer tech products' prices remained below core inflation," Kowalski said.

To be sure, the information technology commodities index of CPI is down more than 26% from February 2020, BLS data shows.

Could this change in 2025? That general trend of tech device price changes running under core inflation should continue, but there's a gigantic wild card at play: the tariffs that have been floated and threatened by President-elect Donald Trump.

"[Tariffs] would increase the prices for a lot of products," Kowalski said. "Tariffs are a tax on consumers and businesses, they disrupt supply chains, they reduce global innovation and investment."

A recent CTA study found that tariffs could cause prices to spike for some of the most commonly purchased tech products. If the proposed tariffs were fully passed through consumers the average price of a TV could rise by 9%, or $48; smartphones by 25.8%, or $213; and laptops by a hefty 45%, or $357, according to the report from the CTA.

Used cars and rental cars

2024 price changes (through November): Car rental prices down 6.7%; used car prices down 4.6%

The pandemic discombobulated supply chains, causing prices to heat up in the process for scores of products (more on that below). However, some of the most acute price hikes reverberated through the auto industry.

A global computer chip shortage choked off production of new vehicles, sending demand and prices soaring (by more than 45% at one point, according to CPI data) for used cars. Once supply chains got back in order, those prices tumbled throughout 2023, and that continued in 2024.

A pedestrian walks past a used car lot in Glendale, California, on February 15, 2023.

Mario Tama/Getty Images

Those declines were even more pronounced in the rental market, which saw a nearly 110% spike in its annual inflation rate in May 2021.

2025 outlook: Used car prices aren't falling as fast as they have been, but the outlook for overall vehicle prices remains uncertain. While interest rates remain high and serve as a significant barrier for purchase, they've also helped to keep the lid on price hikes, said Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group.

"And so that's how inflation slows," he said.

However, the imposition of tariffs could upend the US auto industry, economists say.

The amount of parts that go into cars assembled in the US would be difficult for American suppliers to replace, which would make building a car at US auto plants much more expensive.

General goods (apparel, toys)

2024 price declines: Men's suits down 5.2%; women's dresses and outerwear down 3.7%; toys down 3.1%

The 2024 inflation story has been one that's largely driven by services, housing-related costs, rents, education, health care, etc.

Goods prices, on the other hand, continued to tumble from their pandemic highs. Some of the categories seeing the biggest declines were clothing, toys and even some furniture and products like sewing machines.

An Anthropologie store in the Soho neighborhood of New York on August 14, 2024.

Yuki Iwamura/Bloomberg/Getty Images

"We were stuck at home, so we ordered a lot of stuff online, a lot of physical goods," Faucher said, noting that Americans ramped up their goods purchases by 15% during that time.

The companies all along the supply chain weren't set up to handle that demand, so that led to higher prices. Demand has flattened in recent years, people wanted to get back out in the world; supply chains got back in order; plus you can only buy so many sewing machines, couches and stationary bikes, so that has resulted in either very minimal price hikes or even price drops.

Will that continue? Everything else held equal, goods prices should remain pretty flat heading into 2025; however, (not to sound like a broken record), that could change if tariffs were to be imposed on some of the US' biggest trading partners, he said.

"A lot of the goods that we buy are imported, and even for goods that are produced domestically, they use a lot of inputs from abroad," Faucher said. "If we get tariffs, then that would drive goods prices higher, at least temporarily. And so that would lead to higher goods inflation, and higher overall inflation."

Food

2024 price declines (through November): Frozen baked goods, down 3.3%; crackers, down 2.4%; canned vegetables, down 2.2%

Although your morning omelet would like to disagree, food prices have been fairly tame in 2024, and some categories have even seen price declines.

Those include frozen foods, canned foods, and packaged products like crackers and cereal.

Some of those declines can be attributed to shifts in demand (people going out more or eating less processed food) and aspects such as weather and harvests.

A customer shops in the frozen foods aisle of a grocery store in Miami on October 17, 2024.

Joe Raedle/Getty Images

However, they can also be a reflection of the highly volatile nature of food, which has long been subject to price fluctuations as the result of weather events, crop yields, disease, war, supply chain snarls, spikes in demand or other temporary disruptions.

And that's playing out in some of the starkest price increases occurring in recent months in products like eggs, meat, coffee, orange juice and dairy.

So, in terms of 2025: Overall food prices are expected to continue to see disinflation, according to projections from the US Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service.

Still, pockets of the food industry currently experiencing shortages due to disease or weather could continue to see higher prices, economists have told CNN. Plus, they note that volatility in food prices could heighten as weather events grow more extreme and geopolitical troubles worsen.

(And one last time for good measure…) Economists say that food prices could be negatively impacted by policies such as tariffs, mass deportations or restrictions on immigration.

CNN's Matt Egan and Chris Isidore contributed reporting.