Morningstar reiterated Monday that its $780 billion fair value estimate for SpaceX already assumes major breakthroughs, including rapid Starship reusability and commercialized space-based data centers, yet still falls roughly 55% short of the company’s reported $1.75 trillion IPO valuation.

The independent research firm said investors appear to be assigning significant value to future businesses and technological breakthroughs that have yet to prove their commercial viability.

Bull Case Already Assumes Major Breakthroughs

Morningstar said its $63 per-share fair value estimate already incorporates significant upside from some of SpaceX’s most ambitious long-term initiatives.

The firm’s valuation assigns a combined probability of just 7% to Starship achieving rapid reusability and orbital data centers becoming a commercially viable business, assumptions that underpin its most optimistic scenario.

Even with those assumptions embedded in its analysis, Morningstar said SpaceX’s reported IPO valuation leaves limited upside, warning that the economics of space-based computing remain largely unproven.

Last week, Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens said investors are likely to find a better margin of safety after the IPO than they will on the day of the listing or in the weeks immediately following it.