Sign Up

US Economy Eyes 3.4% Growth In Q3: Is A Soft Landing Turning Into A Reacceleration?

The U.S. economy is flexing unexpected muscles, with recent data hinting at a potential shift from the much-anticipated "soft landing" to something far more glittering.

Only two months ago concerns about a looming downturn dominated the narrative, but as a series of upside data surprises rolled in, including better-than-expected GDP revisions, the September jobs report, and retail sales figures, the focus has turned to the possibility of an economic reacceleration.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model, updated on Oct. 21, 2024, projects a robust 3.4% growth for third-quarter GDP. This is a notable jump from the 2.6% forecast just a month ago, signaling that the economy has gained more momentum than economists anticipated just a few weeks earlier.

If the projection holds, this would mark the strongest economic performance since the third quarter of last year, when the economy expanded at a blistering 4.4%. Moreover, the 3.4% forecast also outpaces the long-term average growth rate of 3.1%

The upward revision was largely driven by stronger-than-expected consumer spending. The forecast for real personal consumption expenditures jumped from 3.1% to 3.6% over the past month.

With the official third-quarter GDP data set to be released on Oct. 30, all eyes are now on whether the ...