UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE: UNH) is set to report third-quarter 2024 results on Oct. 15, 2024, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter's earnings is currently pegged at $7.02 per share on revenues of $99.6 billion. Growing premiums, commercial memberships and Optum business are expected to have supported its performance, partially affected by elevated expenses and lower Medicaid memberships.

The third-quarter earnings estimate has witnessed downward revisions over the past 60 days. However, the bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year increase of 7%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests year-over-year growth of 7.8%.

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UnitedHealth has a robust history of surpassing earnings estimates, beating the consensus estimate in each of the last four quarters, with the average surprise being 3.3%.

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated Price and EPS Surprise

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated price-eps-surprise | UnitedHealth Group Incorporated Quote

Q3 Earnings Whispers for UNH

However, our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That's not the case here.

UNH has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

What's Shaping Q3 Results?

UnitedHealth's third-quarter earnings are expected to have benefited from higher premiums, driven by the expansion of its commercial membership base. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for premium revenues for the third quarter indicates 6.1% year-over-year growth, whereas our model estimate suggests a 5.3% increase. Increased contributions from both Optum Health and its health benefits divisions are expected to have supported premium growth.

UNH's third-quarter top-line performance is expected to have been enhanced ...