That One Didn’t Work…
In yesterday’s post (“How We’re Playing Nvidia Ahead Of Earnings Today”), I wrote that we had about coinflip odds of our Nvidia (NVDA) earnings trade working out:
Everyone expects Nvidia to report monster numbers; the question, as always, is whether the numbers will be large enough relative to Wall Street’s expectations.
Nvidia reported monster numbers, beating top and bottom line estimates, but not Wall Street’s higher whisper numbers.
$NVDA | Nvidia Q2'25 Earnings Highlights:🔹 Revenue: $30.0B (Est. $28.9B) 🟢; UP +122% YoY🔹 GAAP EPS: $0.67 (Est. $0.65) 🟢; UP +168% YoY🔹 Non-GAAP Gross Margin: 75.7% (Est. 75.5%) 🟡🔸 Announced $50B buybackQ3'25 Guidance:🔹 Revenue: $32.5B ± 2% (Est. $31.7B) 🟢🔹…
— Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) August 28, 2024
And the company’s conference call apparently didn’t give analysts enough color on the rollout of the company’s Blackwell chips. So unlike last quarter, when our coinflip earnings trade on Nvidia came up heads, and we made 215%, this morning we exited our Nvidia trade for 2 cents, so we lost 94% on it.
…But This One Did
In yesterday’s post, I mentioned a way to get better-than-coinflip odds on these kinds of earnings trades:
A way to tilt the odds in your favor on this kind of trade is to place it earlier, during a ...
